STRATEGIC THREAT ASSESSMENT // FILE 08-ISRAEL

The Israeli Dilemma

Israel is not just a nation in conflict. It is a weaponized geopolitical anomaly designed to drain Western resources.

Executive Summary

The standard history of Israel is a tragedy of competing nationalisms. The strategic reality is different. For 100 years, the conflict in Palestine has functioned as a "Resource Sink"—a machine that traps great powers (first Britain, now the US) in an unwinnable, expensive quagmire.

This briefing argues that the conflict was not just "co-opted" by chance. The "Minimiser Network" (Russia, China, Iran) actively maintains the conflict to bleed the West dry. They use Israel as "Bait" to force the US to spend billions, while simultaneously using the conflict as "Cover" to destroy Western moral credibility in the Global South.

Section 1: The Prototype (1915-1948)

Before the US got trapped, the British Empire was the first victim. The "British Mandate" was the prototype for the resource sink strategy.

The Engineered Failure

During WWI, Britain promised the same land to three different groups (Arabs, Jews, and Themselves). This guaranteed that whoever ruled Palestine would face perpetual insurrection.

The Cost of "Victory"

Between 1922 and 1948, Britain poured millions of pounds and tens of thousands of soldiers into Palestine to stop the fighting they created. It didn't work. By 1947, an exhausted, bankrupt Britain was forced to withdraw. The lesson was clear: You can bleed a superpower to death by trapping them in a "Management" role in this specific territory.19

Section 2: The Cold War Trap (The Hook)

After 1948, the trap was reset for a new victim: The United States. The mechanism was simple: Create an existential threat to Israel, compelling the US to pay any price to save it.

The "Bait" and "Drain" Cycle

Case Study: 1973 Yom Kippur War

  1. The Director: The USSR arms Egypt/Syria with advanced missiles.
  2. The Bait: Arab armies attack, threatening to wipe Israel off the map.
  3. The Catch: The US is forced to launch "Operation Nickel Grass"—a massive, costly airlift of tanks and ammo to save Israel.
  4. The Punishment: In retaliation, Arab nations launch an Oil Embargo. Oil prices quadruple. The Western economy crashes.

Result: The USSR spent relatively little to cause trillions of dollars in damage to the US economy. The strategy was perfected.

Section 3: The "Alliance of the Periphery" (The Secrets)

To understand why Iran is such a deadly enemy today, you must understand that they used to be Israel's closest ally.

The Hidden Partnership (Pre-1979)

Under the Shah, Israel and Iran had a secret "Alliance of the Periphery" against the Arab world. It wasn't just diplomatic; it was deep military integration.

Energy & Infrastructure

They built the Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline together. Iran supplied Israel's oil; Israel helped sell Iranian oil to Europe, bypassing the Suez Canal.

"Project Flower"

A top-secret 1977 deal where Israel agreed to help Iran build nuclear-capable missiles. They shared blueprints, technology, and tests.58

The Strategic Disaster

When the Shah fell in 1979, the new Islamic Republic inherited all this knowledge. Iran knows Israel's infrastructure, missile tech, and intelligence doctrine because they helped build it. This is not a standard enemy; this is a former partner who kept the blueprints.

Section 4: The Deception (Iran-Contra)

The "Minimisation" theory claims that Western assets can be tricked into arming their own enemies. The proof is the **Iran-Contra Affair (1985)**.

Arming the Enemy

In the middle of the 1980s, while Iran was chanting "Death to America" and "Death to Israel," the US and Israel secretly sold weapons to Iran.

  • The Deal: Israel sent US-made anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Iran.
  • The Logic: Ostensibly to free hostages, but strategically it kept the Iran-Iraq war going (bleeding both sides).

The "Smoking Gun"

This proves that the "Hostility" is often performative. Behind closed doors, the West was manipulated into sustaining the very regime (Iran) that is now its greatest threat. It was a masterclass in Minimiser deception: using Western assets to ensure the survival of a Minimiser state.61

Section 5: The Double Game (Performative Hostility)

Today, the "Directors" of the Minimiser network (Russia and China) play a sophisticated double game to keep the resource sink efficient.

Russia's "Alibi Network"

Russia manages to be everyone's friend and nobody's enemy:

  • Friend to Israel: Russia allows Israel to bomb Iranian targets in Syria (deconfliction). This keeps Israel from feeling totally abandoned.
  • Friend to Hamas: Russia hosts Hamas leaders in Moscow and protects Iran at the UN. This keeps the "Axis of Resistance" strong.

The Goal: "Controlled Chaos." Russia ensures Israel is threatened enough to spend billions on defense, but not threatened enough to start a WWIII that would drag Russia in.

China's "Silent Supply"

China plays the "Peacemaker" at the UN while its companies supply the tech. Chinese components are regularly found in Iranian missiles and Hamas drones. They profit from the trade (Israel) and the war (Iran) simultaneously.

Works Cited

  • History of the British Mandate - UN.
  • "Operation Nickel Grass" - Air Force Magazine.
  • "Project Flower" - Declassified Israeli Documents on Iran Missile Co-op.
  • "The Alliance of the Periphery" - Trita Parsi.
  • The Iran-Contra Affair - National Security Archive.
  • Russia's Dual-Track Policy in the Middle East - Carnegie.
  • Chinese Tech in Iranian Missiles - US Treasury Sanctions.